In an age of increasing insecurity, Steve Barwick of NET argues that the Strategic Defence Review should prioritise diplomatic avenues for conflict prevention and resolution, and explain how the UK will work to revive arms control and disarmament to reduce the threat of nuclear conflict.
In July Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that his new government would conduct a Strategic Defence Review (SDR), a process which included a call for evidence. The Nuclear Education Trust’s (NET) submission to the SDR is based on our May 2024 report The Future for UK Defence, Diplomacy and Disarmament – 50 Proposals for a More Peaceful World. This report was based on more than forty responses to a survey of opinion-formers, including former UK Defence and Foreign Secretaries, think tank experts, academics and representatives of all political parties. Below are some of the key points included in our submission to the SDR.
Promoting strategic stability and nuclear de-risking
The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to be a subject of deep concern in its third year. Fears persist regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia, and the widening of the conflict, with no end currently in sight, and no signs of a determined effort for a negotiated peace. A new Cold War involving Russia, China and NATO looms on the horizon. The eroding taboo on nuclear weapons use is particularly worrying. Furthermore, China’s growing nuclear arsenal and Russia’s new nuclear capabilities may lead to an arms race if the US responds to this “two nuclear peer problem” by expanding its own nuclear forces.
The degradation of nuclear arms control and disarmament has seriously damaged relations between the major powers, which are vitally important to the security of the UK and the world. To address this, our report recommends that the UK Government should promote strategic stability and nuclear risk reduction measures, both at meetings of the major powers and in other international fora, such as the P5 process.
These efforts need to be backed up by actions, including, for example, on transparency concerning the UK’s nuclear use doctrine and its red lines on force escalation and deterrence options. The SDR should therefore outline what progressive steps on nuclear arms control and disarmament it will take to revive the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and convene states to consider ways in which AI, cyber and other emerging technology should be regulated to minimise existential risk and prevent arms races.
Pro-activity in stabilising great power relationships
Many respondents to our survey argued that to help prevent conflicts involving the major powers escalating up to nuclear war, and to assist the world to step back from the precipice of climate catastrophe, the UK should act as a nation amongst nations, not beholden only to the US, but building wider partnerships—in Europe and beyond. Respondents also highlighted the importance of the UK using diplomatic tools to help end conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
For several respondents, Russia is no longer a reliable or trustworthy partner for the West, and there is no chance of a better relationship with the Kremlin as long as President Putin is in charge. However as one contributor argued, rather than waiting years for a resolution on the battlefield in Ukraine, diplomatic efforts focused on a new peace settlement for Europe should be prioritised.
Beijing was generally seen by those we interviewed as more responsible, so that a pragmatic relationship is achievable for the UK, balancing commercial interests and human rights concerns, for example. Some saw this approach as being important to prevent China and Russia from joining forces against the West. In addition, short-term measures to stabilise great power relations include improving crisis diplomacy and conflict prevention mechanisms.
The UK’s contribution to a more peaceful world
Several respondents to our report highlighted how the UK’s current nuclear weapons modernisation undermines its NPT disarmament obligations, and proposed that the UK needs to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons in its security policy. For example, the UK should reverse the nuclear warhead cap increase announced in 2021 and return to the previous goal of reducing its total number of warheads to 180, as outlined in the 2010 Defence Review.
Other steps the UK should take include:
- Committing to transparency over its defence nuclear enterprise (including acquisition, maintenance, deployment and nuclear weapons use policy).
- Giving credible negative security assurances to non-nuclear weapon states, meaning that it will not threaten to use, or use, nuclear weapons against them.
- Commencing a diplomatic push for all NWS to commit to a No First Use nuclear weapons policy.
A number of report respondents argued that the UK should join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and outline a timetable for eliminating its nuclear arsenal. In the near term, the UK could engage purposefully with the TPNW, for example, by participating in meetings as an observer state, and/or by contributing research and resources to support its goals.
Prioritising the climate crisis and human security
Our report found that future UK international policy reviews should give far more weight to the impacts of the climate crisis, including how developments in this area will interact with other areas of human and national security, such as migration, conflict, and nuclear weapons decision-making. Those we spoke to who favour the UK moving to a more modest defence posture—focused on the Euro-Atlantic area—generally want the UK to divert resources from military spending to civil goods and services, and increase spending on addressing the climate crisis.
In addition, several interviewees argued for the UK to help create a truly multipolar world order based on international law, diplomacy, a strengthened UN and the principles of inclusion, social justice, and democracy. Rather than using military tools and force to retain influence and control, the UK should prioritise diplomacy and multilateralism, in addition to reducing and regulating arms transfers—especially to repressive states. These ideas, prioritising global cooperation and environmental protection, correspond with the concept of human security.
To apply a human security approach, the SDR should identify what essential assets and personnel are required, and what current and planned military equipment and weapons projects are unsustainable or unnecessary. In addition, given the MoD’s significant budget problems, the government should lead a public conversation on the costs and risks involved in increasing military spending beyond 2% of GDP. There must be an informed discussion on what areas of public spending need to be sacrificed if this goal is to be met, with a particular focus on projected rises to the nuclear weapons budget over the next decade, and the options for reducing this.
There are many opportunities to push UK foreign policy in a more progressive direction. To help get the world back onto a path towards peace it is vital that the SDR prioritises diplomacy, conflict prevention and resolution, mechanisms to stabilise great power relations, and the revival of arms control and disarmament to reduce nuclear dangers.
For the complete text of NET’s submission to the SDR please see here .
Steve Barwick is the Chair of Nuclear Education Trust.
The views and opinions expressed in posts on the Rethinking Security blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the network and its broader membership.
Image Credit: Defence Images (MoD) via Flickr. Royal Navy nuclear-armed submarine HMS Vanguard returns to HMNB Clyde, Scotland, November 2009.
I very much agree with all the suggestions.I think it’s high time we considered diplomacy and support of the TPNW. I’m afraid today’s risk is not just the use of nuclear weapons by Russia but equally the “accidental” use of the new inoming smaller “useable” nuclear weapons by one of the NATO pilots from Europe who are about to be trained to use the plans that coud drop those weaons.